Solar DSM Intelligence
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Advanced DSM Engine

Deviation Settlement Mechanism analysis with interval-normalized deviation, dynamic risk scoring, and configurable KERC/CERC rule profiles.

DSM Engine· interval-normalized deviationDynamic Risk· w_dev=0.6, w_pv=0.4KERC· ±5% solar bandFuzzy Risk· triangular MFs
Formulas used
DSM deviation (interval-normalized %)USER_CONFIGURABLE
deviation_pct = (|actual − scheduled| / Δt_h)
             × block_h / denom × 100
actual, scheduled — Generation in MW (actual or predicted vs declared schedule)
Δt_h — Evaluation interval in hours (1 for hourly, 0.25 for 15-min)
block_h — DSM time-block length = profile.time_block_minutes / 60
denom — available_capacity (CERC) or scheduled (simple mode), in MW
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Dynamic risk scoreFALLBACK_DEFAULT
dev_pct = |actual − scheduled| / scheduled × 100
pv_risk = (1 − clamp(pv_score, 0, 1)) × 100
raw = 0.6 × dev_pct + 0.4 × pv_risk
score = clamp(raw, 0, 100)
w_dev — Weight on deviation (default 0.6 — deviation dominates)
w_pv — Weight on PV health risk (default 0.4)
pv_score — PV health: min(1, measured / predicted_generation_mw)
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DSM charge (slab-based)USER_CONFIGURABLE
chargeable_kWh_slab = (pct_in_slab / 100)
  × capacity_mw × 1000 × interval_hours
dsm_charge = Σ chargeable_kWh_slab × slab_rate
pct_in_slab — % of deviation falling in each slab band
slab_rate — ₹/kWh for that slab (KERC: 2/4/6 INR)
Fuzzy risk classificationFALLBACK_DEFAULT
risk = f(breach_ratio, confidence, cloud_volatility)
→ LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH / CRITICAL
# Triangular membership functions
breach_ratio — deviation_pct / band_percent
confidence — Forecast confidence (0.4–0.99)
cloud_volatility — Hourly cloud cover variance
Irradiance closure (data quality)OFFICIAL_SOURCE · pvlib
GHI = DNI · cos(θz) + DHI
# Verified on NSRDB Himawari 2019
# MAE 0.4 W/m² (0.13%)
View source →
KERC solar DSM bandUSER_CONFIGURABLE · KERC
band = ±5% of available capacity
slab_1 = 0–15% beyond band → ₹2/kWh
slab_2 = 15–25% → ₹4/kWh
slab_3 = >25% → ₹6/kWh
Provenance: USER_CONFIGURABLE + FALLBACK_DEFAULT — Deviation formula and slab rates are configurable per rule profile. Dynamic risk uses fixed w_dev=0.6/w_pv=0.4 defaults. No rupee charge is computed without an official tariff.
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