Scenario Analysis

DSM outcomes across weather regimes · 100 MW plant, 70 MW scheduled (pvlib physics)

pvlib· GHI→DNI/DHI + POA + PVWattsDSM Engine· deviation + slab chargesFuzzy Risk· LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH/CRITICAL

Formulas used

PV generation (PVWatts)OFFICIAL_SOURCE · pvlib

DC = pvwatts_dc(poa, t_cell, pdc0, γ=-0.0035)
AC = pvwatts_inverter(DC, pdc0, η=0.96)
predicted_mw = min(AC / 1e6, capacity_mw)

DSM deviation (per scenario)USER_CONFIGURABLE

dev_pct = (|predicted − scheduled| / Δt_h)
         × block_h / capacity × 100
status = dev_pct > threshold ? PENALTY_RISK : OK

threshold — Configured DSM band (default 10%)

capacity — Installed capacity (MW)

Penalty cost estimateUSER_CONFIGURABLE

penalty_cost = chargeable_kWh × penalty_rate
chargeable_kWh = (dev_pct / 100) × capacity × 1000 × Δt_h

Fuzzy risk classificationFALLBACK_DEFAULT

inputs: breach_ratio = dev_pct / band
         confidence = 1 − 0.35 × cloud
         cloud_volatility
→ triangular MFs → LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH / CRITICAL

Provenance: OFFICIAL_SOURCE + FALLBACK_DEFAULT — Generation is computed via pvlib physics (OFFICIAL_SOURCE). Risk classification uses fuzzy membership functions (FALLBACK_DEFAULT, tunable). Penalty cost is an estimate — not a regulatory charge.

Clear Sky

950 W/m² · 5% cloud

Partly Cloudy

620 W/m² · 45% cloud

Overcast

300 W/m² · 80% cloud

Storm

110 W/m² · 95% cloud

No scenarios run yet

Run all scenarios to compare DSM outcomes side by side